Inter-Korean Relations: Major Events in 2020 and Prospects for 2021
1. Major Events in 2020
(1) Pyongyang Halts Contact with Seoul due to COIVD-19
- North Korea took measures to close all borders to prevent the spread of COVID-19 and subsequently inter-Korean contact and exchange shut down.
- In January 30 notice Mount Kumgang International Trade Bureau notified that, to prevent the spread of COIVD-19, it was delaying the demolition of Mount Kumgang facilities for the time being.
- Through January 30 consultation North and South Korean representatives decided to temporarily close Inter-Korean Joint Liaison Office until the COVID-19 risk becomes fully eliminated.
- On July 25 KWP’s Politburo Emergency Session decided to put the national disease prevention system to the highest emergency status.
- In August and September North Korea concentrated on domestic issues mainly dealing with flood damages and COIVD-19. On September 29 KWP’s 7th Central Committee Session 18th Politburo Meeting reviewed issues concerning COVID-19 emergency measures and the status of disaster recovery.
(2) Denouncing the Blue House
- KWP Central Commission First Deputy Chief Kim Yeo Jong, who handles Seoul and Washington, and other major policy makers made personal statements to criticize the Blue House for taking the mediator role.
- North Korea denounced the Blue House because the Seoul government did not move according to Pyongyang’s strategic intentions during the nuclear negotiations. Pyongyang made attempts to use Seoul in the negotiation process as a means to drive a wedge between Seoul and Washington, to stop US-ROK joint military exercises, to prevent deployment of American strategic weapons in the Korean Peninsula. But Seoul acted in a way to contradict Pyongyang’s interests.
- In the March 3 statement Kim Yeo Jong demanded the Seoul government to stop US-ROK joint military exercises and working groups and to act independently.
- In the July 7 statement Foreign Ministry US desk director Kwon Jong Keun said that Seoul should not cling to the desire to play a mediating role, as it would prove a worthless effort.
- In the July 10 statement Kim Yeo Jong said that a totally impractical and useless US-DPRK summit is unnecessary, and that, if North Korea is not provoked, everything will flow smoothly.
(3) Demolishing Inter-Korean Joint Liaison Office
- Aiming for a shock effect, North Korea blew up the Inter-Korean Liaison Office building to tame the Seoul government which did not behave according to Pyongyang’s strategic intentions, and created a crisis situation between the two Koreas whose relationship had already been tense since the failed Hanoi deal.
- On the surface Pyongyang cited the issue of propaganda leaflets floated to North Korea on balloons by North Korean defectors as the reason for the demolition, but it was actually intended to disrupt US-ROK cooperation and to warn Washington that it could create a crisis in the Korean Peninsula anytime.
- In the June 4 statement Kim Yeo Jong warned that unless Seoul took measures to stop the leaflets, Pyongyang would completely shut down Kaesong Industrial Complex, close the Inter-Korean Liaison Office, or terminate the North-South military agreement.
- On June 5 the Department of United Front spokesperson announced that a number of measures would be taken including the closure of the Inter-Korean Liaison Office.
- Through the Korean Central News Agency report on June 9, Pyongyang declared that all communication lines would be completely disconnected.
- Department of United Front Director Chang Keum Chul denounced Seoul despite the Blue House National Security First Deputy Director’s statement on June 11 that dropping leaflets to the North would be stopped.
- On June 16 North Korea blew up the Inter-Korean Liaison Office in Kaesong.
- Commenting on President Moon Jae In’s words in the Blue House staff meetings and the online message commemorating the 20th anniversary of the June 15 Joint Declaration, Kim Yeo Jong on June 17 called them ‘shameless sophistry, lame excuse, irresponsibility, deep-rooted toadyism’ and declared that Pyongyang had no intention of having talks with Seoul.
- On June 17 North Korean General Staff Department announced that it would seek speedy approval from the Central Military Commission for concrete plans for various military actions against South Korea including deploying regiment size troops in Keumgang Mountain Tourism Area and Kaesong Industrial Complex, moving troops into guard post in the DMZ, enhancing combat readiness in the southwest maritime front and artillery corps in the frontline, raising defense readiness condition to level 1 in all frontline corps, and resuming military exercises in border areas.
- In the 7th KWP 5th Central Military Commission preliminary meeting on June 23 Kim Jong Un announced the suspension of the military actions against South Korea planned by the General Staff Department.
- On June 24 KWP Central Commission Deputy Chair, Kim Young Cheol threatened that military actions would be considered again depending on the future actions and attitudes of the South Korean government.
(4) South Korean Fisheries Official Killed and Burnt by North’s Military
- The South Korean military authorities announced that on September 24 the North Korean military killed a South Korean fisheries official and burnt his body.
- On September 25 Pyongyang sent a notice to the Blue House expressing regret about the slaying of the fisheries official and claiming that the captain of the patrol boat acted according to the regulation.
- Through the Korean Central News Agency report on September 27 Pyongyang demanded “the South to immediately stop trespassing the West Sea maritime military demarcation line, which could create new tension.” North Korea claimed that South Koreans intruded into the North’s territorial water while searching for the fisheries official and demanded to stop the incursion.
- North Korean Central News Agency report on October 30 stated that the incident occurred because South Korean authorities did not properly control their citizens and that the responsibility was on the South side. The report also stated North Korea did not wish to repeat the unpleasant past history when such accidental events led to disastrous results.
- Pyongyang did not investigate the incident or punish those who were responsible, and insisted that it was a justifiable action.
2. Prospects for the Inter-Korean Relations in 2021
(1) Major Factors Affecting Pyongyang’s Stance towards Seoul
- Major factors affecting Pyongyang’s stance towards Seoul will be COVID-19 situation, Biden administration’s policy towards North Korea and its policy concerning the nuclear issue, and the issue of forming a single Korean team for the Tokyo Olympics.
- If COVID-19 situation does not improve, it is highly unlikely that Pyongyang, more preoccupied with controlling the pandemic, will make an attempt to establish dialogue with Seoul.
- Biden administration's North Korea policy and US-DPRK relations will affect inter-Korean relations. Pyongyang will continue to use inter-Korean relations in 2021 as a means to improve US-DPRK relations and to resolve the nuclear issue.
(2) COVID-19 and Inter-Korean Relations
- Since North Korea’s medical system is nearly collapsed, unless herd immunity against COVID-19 is achieved through vaccination or other means, North Korean borders will remain closed.
- While North Korea’s borders remain closed, it is unlikely that inter-Korean relations will improve. At the KWP 75th anniversary military parade, Kim Jong Un stated that inter-Korean relations could improve only after the current health crisis came to an end.
- Seoul needs to pursue inter-Korean dialogue at a time when Pyongyang makes an attempt to change its pandemic policy and opens the borders.
- As long as COVID-19 crisis continues, North Korea will not positively respond to Seoul’s attempts at dialogues and little substantial progress is expected.
(3) Biden Administration’s North Korea Policy and the Nuclear Issue
- Inter-Korean relations will be directly influenced by the progress in the US-DPRK nuclear negotiations. Since North Korea can use Seoul when it is trying to establish contact with the Biden administration, Pyongyang will not let the inter-Korean relations further deteriorate until the direction of the US-DPRK relations is set.
- North Korea will try to establish their nuclear power status as a fact by mass producing and deploying nuclear weapons, and intends to transform US-DPRK nuclear negotiations into nuclear arms reduction talks. To put strong pressure on the US to accept nuclear arms reduction Pyongyang may create military tension with the US by flaunting its nuclear capability, revealing the number of nuclear weapons deployed, or test launching ICBMs and SLBMs.
- If, after the inauguration of the new US administration, US-DPRK nuclear negotiations develop into nuclear arms reduction negotiations as Pyongyang demands, inter-Korean relations may also improve.
- If Washington-Pyongyang talks do not make progress, North Korea is likely to use South Korea to maximize its leverage in the nuclear negotiations. In order to cause a crack in the ROK-US alliance and neutralize the sanctions against North Korea, Pyongyang will demand Seoul to be more active in persuading Washington to make a concession in the nuclear talks, to cancel US-ROK joint military exercises, and to expand inter-Korean economic cooperation.
- If US-DPRK nuclear negotiations reach a stalemate, inter-Korean relations will not improve much from the present situation.
(4) Forming a Single Korean Team for Tokyo Olympics
- In the December 2018 Sports Talk, Seoul and Pyongyang agreed to form a single team in women’s basketball, women’s hockey, rowing and judo for the 2020 Tokyo Olympics.
- Situation surrounding the project deteriorated as the Tokyo Olympics got postponed to 2021 due to COVID-19, Inter-Korean Liaison Office was blown up by the North, and a South Korean fisheries official was killed and burnt by North Korean troops.
- It is still a possibility that the South Korean government tries to form a single team in women’s basketball. Women’s hockey and rowing did not qualify for the Olympics and judo is an individual game.
- Forming a single team for the Olympics has very uncertain prospects, as Pyongyang will decide on the issue while dealing with COVID-19, unpromising inter-Korean dialogues, and the US-DPRK relations under the Biden administration.
- The only condition under which Pyongyang may agree to a single Korean team would be when it believes that improving inter-Korean relations can be used to its advantage in the US-DPRK talks.