Professor LeVan then traces the political vulnerability of PDP, Nigeria’s ruling party during the 2015 Presidential Election—as well as Africa’s largest party—in the face of elite bargains that facilitated a democratic transition in 1999. The pacts are made of several prongs, namely the party’s support towards a Presidential candidate of Yoruba ethnicity as a way to pay off past debts towards Yoruba people, an informal rotation of power divided along the geographical zoning of the Northern and Southern regions of Nigeria and ‘coup-proofing’ for the military officials. These 'pacts' enabled electoral competition but ultimately undermined the party's coherence in the long run.

Professor LeVan also crucially examines the four critical barriers to Nigeria's democratic consolidation: the terrorism of Boko Haram in the northeast, threats of Igbo secession in the southeast, lingering ethnic resentments and rebellions in the Niger Delta, and farmer-pastoralist conflicts. Despite the assumption that the issue of terrorism and security would be salient in swinging the electoral outcomes, Professor LeVan’s findings showed that promises of economic growth and electoral integrity was considered more important by the voters. While the PDP built its campaign platform on negative campaign and fearmongering about the opposition's ability to stop Boko Haram's terrorism, the opposition built a winning electoral coalition on economic growth, anti-corruption, and electoral integrity—all without major violence or military coup, a result which is noted by Professor Shirato as surprising even for an astute observer of African politics like himself.

Professor LeVan concluded the lecture by offering his thoughts and prognosis on the upcoming Nigerian Presidential Election, which is to be held in February 2019.