【Report】What Lessons Can We Learn from Japan’s Rush to the Pacific War?

On July 6, 2023, Lionel Fatton, Assistant Professor at Webster University Geneva, delivered a presentation based on his recent book Japan’s Rush to the Pacific War: The Institutional Roots of Overbalancing at Ritsumeikan University.

Prof. Fatton began the presentation with a puzzle as to why Japan overbalanced against the United States in the 1930s, even when the international security environment was favorable, and its leaders knew all too well that its naval expansion would be met with a strong American response. He hypothesized that the exaggeration of the American threat led the Japanese down the path.

The hypothesis is incomplete, however, as it is still puzzling why Tokyo inflated the threat posed by Washington since its behavior towards Japan was anything but hostile. To investigate what led to Japan’s exaggerated threat perception, Prof. Fatton hypothesized that “exogenous shock,” or sudden and unexpected international challenge, prods a government to turn to domestic actors (typically bureaucratic organizations) for explanations and policy prescriptions. He argued that there would be a tug-of-war between hawks and doves within the government—usually between the military and other bureaucratic organizations—over the perception of threat and policy solutions to deal with the threat. When the military has the upper hand, the state likely overbalances since the military tends to inflate the level of threat to national security.

In the absence of an exogenous shock, Prof. Fatton argued, Japan appropriately balanced against the United States in the 1920s. However, the Manchurian crisis of 1931-1933 shocked the Japanese government as it resulted from an independent action taken by the Kwantung Army deployed in Manchuria. This opened the window for the Imperial Japanese Navy to inflate the threat posed by the United States. Due to feeble civilian control over the military, the tug of war favored the hawks, leading to Japan’s overbalancing.

Prof. Fatton concluded his presentation with three points. First, non-democratic countries tend to overbalance when faced with a dangerous international environment because these countries tend to have weak civilian control over the military. Second, countries with strong military influence on politics tend to resort to coercive and unilateral actions. Prof. Fatton mentioned that one of these countries is China. Finally, dealing with such countries with a powerful military influence in politics is quite challenging. As a policy prescription, Prof. Fatton argued that Japan should actively engage with China rather than solely focus on deterrence to ensure peace.

The presentation concluded with a vibrant Q&A session. Many audience members asked interesting questions related to, among other things, challenges Prof. Fatton faced during his archival research, why the Imperial Japanese Navy and not the Army exaggerated the American threat, and Japan’s current approach towards China.

Written by Daichi Morishige (PhD student at Ritsumeikan University)