【Seminar Report】Contemporary Nigerian Politics– Competition in a Time of Transition and Terror –
Session
Carl LeVan, an Associate Professor at American University and a guest lecturer at Ritsumeikan University for this fall semester, gave a special seminar to a diverse audience in Ryoyukan Building, Kinugasa Campus on Tuesday, November 20. The seminar was co-hosted by Ritsumeikan University Institute of International Relations and Area Studies (IIRAS) and the Graduate School and College of International Relations, with Professor Keiichi Shirato from the College of International Relations serving as the discussant.
Professor LeVan has extensively written, gave speeches and conducted seminars about Nigerian politics as well as democracy and electoral politics in Africa.
The seminar focused on how the Nigerian citizens voted out the ruling party in the 2015 Presidential Election—a feat that is a first in Nigerian democratic history, based on survey data as well as Professor LeVan’s own extensive fieldwork across ten states in Nigeria, all of which is compiled within his upcoming book, titled ‘Contemporary Nigerian Politics: Competition in a Time of Transation and Terror’.
Professor LeVan opened the seminar with a brief but fascinating overview about Nigeria, the most populous country in Africa as well as home to 5% of the world’s language—making it arguably one of the most diverse country in the world. He also briefly mentions Nigeria’s oil economy and how these background characteristics may affect the politics of the country.
Professor LeVan then traces the political vulnerability of PDP, Nigeria’s ruling party during the 2015 Presidential Election—as well as Africa’s largest party—in the face of elite bargains that facilitated a democratic transition in 1999. The pacts are made of several prongs, namely the party’s support towards a Presidential candidate of Yoruba ethnicity as a way to pay off past debts towards Yoruba people, an informal rotation of power divided along the geographical zoning of the Northern and Southern regions of Nigeria and ‘coup-proofing’ for the military officials. These 'pacts' enabled electoral competition but ultimately undermined the party's coherence in the long run.
Professor LeVan also crucially examines the four
critical barriers to Nigeria's democratic consolidation: the terrorism of Boko
Haram in the northeast, threats of Igbo secession in the southeast, lingering
ethnic resentments and rebellions in the Niger Delta, and farmer-pastoralist
conflicts. Despite the assumption that the issue of terrorism and security
would be salient in swinging the electoral outcomes, Professor LeVan’s findings
showed that promises of economic growth and electoral integrity was considered
more important by the voters. While the PDP built its campaign platform on
negative campaign and fearmongering about the opposition's ability to stop Boko
Haram's terrorism, the opposition built a winning electoral coalition on
economic growth, anti-corruption, and electoral integrity—all without major
violence or military coup, a result which is noted by Professor Shirato as
surprising even for an astute observer of African politics like himself.
Professor LeVan concluded the lecture by offering his thoughts and prognosis on the upcoming Nigerian Presidential Election, which is to be held in February 2019.
Written by Radesa Guntur Budipramono (Doctor Student at Graduate School of International lations)