【Report】Summary of the lecture by Linda Tjia Yin Nor

Title: The unintended consequences of China's BRI projects in Kazakhstan's agro-industrial upgrading

6 June 2024

In this lecture, Professor Linda Tjia Yin-nor presented a bottom-up view of Chinese development projects in Kazakhstan, focusing on the agricultural industry. Contrary to mainstream analyses of similar projects under the mantle of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Linda argues smaller states like Kazakhstan are not passive recipients of China’s exercise of power; instead, small states possess agency in negotiations with China. Kazakhstan, in particular, has used its oil resources and sovereign wealth funds as instruments to negotiate terms of Chinese projects to be implemented in the country.

Linda’s research found that from 1997 to 2003, before the BRI was announced, a majority of Chinese projects in Kazakhstan were in the fuel and connectivity sectors. However, between 2013 to 2022, when the BRI was in full swing, 113 out of 138 known Chinese projects were not in the fuel or connectivity sectors. Furthermore, 72 percent of the projects were joint projects. These findings suggest China is not unilaterally imposing its priorities onto BRI recipients and that BRI priorities have changed. However, from the perspective of Kazakhstan, this shift was driven by the need to diversify the country’s economy away from oil and gas revenue, while strengthening the agricultural sector. Linda further elaborated how domestic politics and subnational forces, e.g., local communities, have shaped how China implements development projects in Kazakhstan. In agricultural projects, the Kazakh government has promised to prohibit Chinese companies from owning land, and instead, has pushed for joint partnerships. At the grassroots level, local communities have shown resistance against Chinese companies, which have required Chinese companies operating in Kazakhstan to engage substantially in community participation.

In the question-and-answer session, participants discussed the role of civil society organisations in facilitating community outreach and the methods used to analyse content of BRI projects.