【Report】Chinese Popular Nationalism’s Shadow on International Crises: Evidence from a Simulative Survey Experiment

On May 23, 2024, Dr. Andrew Chubb, Senior Lecturer at Lancaster University, gave a presentation on China’s public opinion and foreign policy at Ritsumeikan University. The presentation consisted of five sections.

First, the presentation began with an in-class exercise that resembled research conducted by Dr. Chubb. He provided a hypothetical context in which the audience was in a position to advise the Japanese government. Then, he laid out two scenarios, both of which involved a fatal clash between Japanese and Chinese naval vessels. In the first one, the incident was kept out of the public view. The second scenario involved domestic protests against Japan in China. For each scenario, the audience was asked to assess the three possible Chinese actions towards Japan: 1) arrest the captain using force; 2) respond with economic sanctions; 3) back down from confrontation. Additionally, Dr. Chubb asked the audience to evaluate three policy prescriptions: 1) avoid confrontation with the Chinese; 2) ask for military reinforcements; 3) stand firm in the face of Chinese pressure. The audience shared their answers and why they chose those answers.

After the in-class exercise, Dr. Chubb explained his research that delved into how other states perceive the impact of China’s popular nationalism on foreign policy. He emphasized that understanding this is crucial since there are many interpretations of the relationship between China’s nationalistic public opinion and the government’s foreign policy choices.

Third, the presentation explained the methodology used for the study. Dr. Chubb explained he conducted a controlled survey asking similar (but distinct) questions to those used in the in-class exercise to roughly 800 individuals belonging to the foreign policy community in several countries. Unlike the in-class exercise, he noted the research also looked into the perceived impact of public opinion expressed in China’s social media on its foreign policy.

Fourth, Dr. Chubb shared the results and implications for future research. The survey results suggested that most foreign policy elites generally perceived domestic protests impacted China’s resolve. The results also indicated that social media posts have as much impact as the protests on the streets. These findings suggest that threats are not effective without domestic public constraint. However, Dr. Chubb explained that this study cannot tell us why there are regional differences in the survey results and the interviewee’s rationales for their answers. He mentioned these could be interesting topics for future research.

The presentation concluded with a Q&A session. The audience asked many interesting questions, such as the potential effect of language on the survey results, conducting opinion polls in China, and how to address selection biases in the survey.

Written by Daichi Morishige (PhD researcher at Ritsumeikan University)