【Report】Indonesia Post-2024 Elections: Political-Security Prospects and Challenges

7 November 2024

Summary of the seminar delivered by Muhammad Haripin and Adhi Priamarizki

In this seminar, two speakers, Muhammad Haripin from the National Research and Innovation Agency of Indonesia and Adhi Priamarizki from the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, discussed developments in Indonesian politics and security after the election of Indonesia’s newest president, Prabowo Subianto.

Dr Haripin first discussed the political context of the Prabowo presidency. First, there was a declining trend in the quality of democracy, which had started since the previous administration in Indonesia. Second, Prabowo’s cabinet features many retired military officers and business interests. These developments may signal that the military may get broader roles beyond national security and that the private sector will have considerable influence over policymaking. Third, Prabowo has indicated that he was willing to pursue ambitious development programs which require significant amounts of investment and human resources. These programs include the free lunch program and “food estate” programs that area designed to improve food security. However, it remains to be seen how Prabowo will acquire the necessary financial and human resources.

Following Dr Haripin, Dr Priamarizki continued the discussion with the prospects of Indonesian defence policy during the Prabowo presidency. Prabowo may likely continue with the military modernisation program he oversaw during his tenure as Defence Minister in the previous administration. This entails the purchase of newer military equipment to meet the “minimum essential” needs of the Indonesian armed forces, and for investment in national security. However, the program may likely face financial constraints, competing domestic priorities, and a changing geopolitical situation. Dr Priamarizki then discussed Indonesia’s defence cooperation with the United States and China using an original dataset, and then concluded with a discussion on Indonesia-Japan bilateral defence ties.

During the question-and-answer session, participants asked various questions about the Prabowo presidency and data collection methods. On data collection, participants asked about the challenges in compiling and verifying the data used in the dataset. On the role of the military under the Prabowo presidency, participants asked about the potential for increased military involvement under the pretence of military operations other than war, a prospect that remains likely as the military could be used to advance Prabowo’s development programs. Moreover, the military may also be mobilised in the event of a major public health emergency, as it was during the COVID-19 pandemic. Finally, on the topic of the new capital city, known as Nusantara, in Kalimantan, participants asked whether the Prabowo presidency will continue to oversee its development. There are signs that Prabowo may continue the development, but it remains uncertain.