【Report】Summary of the lecture by Nargis Kassenova 29 May 2025

Title: Central Asian Authoritarianisms: Accounting for Differences and Regime Oscillations

29 May 2025

The Freedom House, a U.S.-based non-profit organization that monitors global trends in democracy and governance, has observed a rising trend of authoritarianism consolidating across Central Asian countries. Yet, amidst the tightening wave of authoritarianism, there are slight variations among regimes in Central Asia. While it is intuitive to think that variations in governing practices can be attributed to the leader’s need to hold on to power, this explanation does not account for seemingly brief windows of liberalizations. In this lecture, Dr Nargis Kassenova examines the reasons for these variations by taking into account degrees of political rights and civil liberties across Central Asian countries.

Dr Kassenova begins by contextualizing political developments across Central Asia, highlighting common trends such as neo-patrimonial networks and their interplay with formal state institutions, and the tendency to view liberal reforms as narrowly instrumental. Then, she takes into account the leaders’ personalities, political strategies, and external incentives or pressures to explain why some authoritarian regimes are more likely to lean towards liberal policies, while others lean towards more repressive policies. This leads to a variety of Central Asian authoritarianisms, as opposed to a singular, monolithic version.

In the animated question-and-answer session, participants discussed the prospects of democratization in Central Asia and other dynamics of Central Asian authoritarianisms, such as the tensions between secularism and a burgeoning religious younger population, and the dynamics of authoritarian learning.